A new report by the organization Defensorxs warns that the prohibition of vapes and the rise of illegal tobacco in Mexico have created a lucrative multi-billion peso business for organized crime. The illicit market for these products is now valued at an estimated 20 billion pesos (approx. $1 billion USD). If taxed, this sector could potentially generate up to 60 billion pesos in state revenue.
The report, titled “Smoke, Vaping and Power: The New Business of Organized Crime,” identifies seven major criminal groups controlling this supply chain: the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, Sinaloa Cartel, Gulf Cartel, Northeast Cartel, United Cartels, New Michoacán Family, and Union Tepito. Shockingly, the value of this illicit market has reportedly quadrupled in just two years, jumping from an estimated 5 billion pesos in 2023 to the current 20 billion.
Experts argue that prohibitionist policies are directly responsible for this surge, creating a vacuum that criminal groups have filled. Armando Vargas from México Evalúa described the current policy as “clearly counterproductive” and urged for a shift towards regulation. Journalist Óscar Balderas noted that a market of this magnitude suggests likely political complicity or tolerance. Researchers called for Mexico to develop its own regulatory framework rather than following foreign agendas, advocating for a model that manages and regulates consumption to wrest control back from organized crime.
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