The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) has released its National Drug Strategy Household Survey, revealing that daily smoking rates have fallen to an unprecedented 5.6% in 2025. This decline puts Australia well ahead of its National Tobacco Strategy target of under 10% by 2025, moving closer to the 2030 goal of 5% or less. Additionally, more than two-thirds of Australians aged 14 and older have never smoked.
Despite this public health success, the data highlights a shift in consumer behavior among remaining smokers. The use of illicit tobacco has doubled, with 34% of smokers admitting to using unbranded or illegally branded tobacco products. Over half of those purchasing branded illicit tobacco—which lacks plain packaging and graphic health warnings—obtained it directly from local tobacconists.
Industry lobbyists and some economists argue that high excise taxes on legal cigarettes drive consumers to the black market, suggesting tax cuts as a solution. However, public health experts strongly reject this approach. Prof Becky Freeman from the University of Sydney pointed out that lowering taxes on legal cigarettes would not deter buyers accustomed to much cheaper, tax-free illicit products. Instead, experts advocate for a major reduction in the number of tobacco retailers nationwide to make law enforcement manageable.
The survey, which polled over 17,500 participants, also brought positive news regarding youth vaping. Daily vaping rates stabilized, while overall vaping among young adults aged 18 to 24 fell to 14%. This decline refutes earlier claims that overall nicotine dependency was rising unchecked, as total nicotine use across the population fell to 15.2%.
Nevertheless, regulators face new challenges with the rise of alternative smokeless products. For the first time, the survey tracked nicotine pouches and traditional snus, finding that 8.4% of young adults had used pouches in the past year. Public health advocates warn that tackling these emerging products will require coordinated enforcement and targeted prevention strategies.
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