The German Bundestag voted early Friday to approve a phased increase in tobacco taxes, driving the average price of a 20-cigarette pack from just over €8 to nearly €12 by 2030. Supported by the ruling coalition of the Union and the SPD, the legislation seeks to secure €12 billion in additional tax revenue while using price mechanisms to lower smoking rates.
The tax increases extend beyond combustible cigarettes. The amendment raises duties on fine-cut rolling tobacco, cigars, cigarillos, waterpipe tobacco, and liquids for electronic cigarettes, with premium brand cigarettes projected to hit €14 per pack by the end of the decade.
| Product Category | Current Average Price (2025/2026) | Projected Price by 2030 |
|---|---|---|
| Standard Cigarette Pack (20 units) | Approx. €8.00 | Approx. €12.00 |
| Premium Brand Cigarettes | €9.00 – €10.00 | Up to €14.00 |
| Fine-Cut Rolling Tobacco & E-Liquids | Subject to standard excise | Higher stepped duty applied |
Fiscal Targets Spark Smuggling Concerns
Federal receipts from tobacco taxes stood at €17.6 billion last year. Under the new schedule, the government plans to extract an additional €1.5 billion in 2027, scaling up to €4.5 billion in additional annual revenue by 2030.
However, the tobacco industry, customs authorities, and several lawmakers questioned these revenue forecasts. CDU member Carsten Brodesser warned during legislative deliberations that excessive rates risk backfiring: “In the end, you achieve neither the desired fiscal result nor the stabilization of the legal tobacco market.”
SPD lawmaker Ingo Vogel defended the bill as a balanced approach designed to protect public health: “At the same time, we want to set price signals that serve health protection by making entry into nicotine consumption less attractive.” Vogel added that regulators intentionally targeted low-cost e-cigarette liquids to prevent them from becoming an accessible entry point for youth.
Opposition parties rejected the measure for divergent reasons. The AfD argued the hike serves solely to close federal budget gaps while strengthening illicit networks. Meanwhile, the Green Party opposed the bill on grounds that the tax adjustments on fine-cut tobacco were too lenient, leaving a cheaper alternative for smokers.
Federal data shows that roughly 19% of German residents aged 15 and older smoke, with tobacco-related illnesses causing approximately 131,000 deaths each year. The legislation now proceeds to the Bundesrat, where final approval is expected without objection.
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